[Direct answer]In the Beijing area, there is no fixed probability, and the decision must be made on a case-by-case basis. According to Article 81 of the Criminal Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China (amended in 2018), if there is evidence to prove that a criminal suspect or defendant has committed a crime, is likely to be sentenced to imprisonment or a heavier punishment, and taking bail pending trial is not sufficient to prevent social dangerousness, they shall be arrested. Therefore, whether to approve the arrest depends on three aspects: first, whether there is evidence to prove the crime; second, whether the possible sentence reaches imprisonment or above; third, whether there is social dangerousness such as committing new crimes, interfering with testimony, retaliating, or committing suicide and fleeing. In practice, if there is insufficient evidence or reasonable doubt, the circumstances are significantly minor, the possible sentence is relatively light, the suspect admits guilt and accepts the punishment and obtains the victim's forgiveness, is an accomplice or plays a minor role, or suffers from serious diseases, the possibility of not approving the arrest is relatively higher. Any statement about specific probabilities is unreliable, and lawyers should evaluate it based on the case file and the facts of the case.

1. Problem background and typical scenarios

After a family member is detained in criminal custody, the most anxious concern of the family is "whether they will be formally arrested and whether they can be released". Various so-called probabilities of not being formally arrested are circulating online, which easily lead families to have unrealistic expectations or excessive panic. In fact, arrest is a relatively severe coercive measure. Whether the procuratorial organ approves the arrest will be reviewed based on evidence, criminal responsibility, and social dangerousness, and is also influenced by the criminal justice policy of "arresting less, prosecuting cautiously, and detaining cautiously". When handling such cases in Beijing, the police and prosecutors will evaluate the nature of the case, the amount involved, the defendant's status in the joint crime, the defendant's appearance at the scene, and personal circumstances item by item. Therefore, the differences between individual cases are very large, and they cannot be generalized by a unified proportion.

II. Key points of dispute

First, how do the three statutory conditions for arrest correspond to the facts of this case one by one? Second, do the evidence meet the standard of "having evidence to prove the existence of criminal facts"? Third, does the possible sentence imposed meet the standard of imprisonment or more? Fourth, can the five statutory circumstances of social dangerousness be ruled out? Fifth, what is the impact of factors such as pleading guilty and accepting the punishment, making restitution, and obtaining the victim's forgiveness, as well as the status of an accomplice, on the review results?

III. Professional analysis by Henglue Law Firm

Henglue Law Firm once handled a bail case involving the crime of disseminating obscene materials. The client, C*, was criminally detained for reposting and sharing three video files on a forum, with a total viewing count of approximately 5,000 and a download count of about 1,000. He did not profit from the act, and his motive was simply to gain forum points. After appearing in court, he voluntarily admitted his guilt and accepted the punishment, acting alone without accomplices. His family entrusted Attorney Shang Jiangpeng of our firm to intervene during the golden period. The lawyer immediately met with the client to verify the facts and then conducted a two-pronged argument: First, according to the judicial interpretation, only when the number of non-profit disseminations of obscene video files exceeds 40 will the perpetrator be convicted and punished. In this case, there were only three files, far below the threshold, so he should not be considered a criminal. Even if he were convicted, the circumstances would be significantly minor. Second, he ruled out social dangerousness one by one, demonstrating that the client was unlikely to commit new crimes, posed no real danger, had no possibility of colluding with accomplices, and no risk of fleeing. Ultimately, the case-handling authority accepted the lawyer's opinion and granted the client bail pending trial. The reason why this case achieved a favorable outcome was not because of "high probability," but because the evidence and circumstances themselves supported the decision not to approve the arrest and grant bail. Moreover, the lawyer's timely intervention and comprehensive argumentation played a crucial role. It can be seen that rather than fixating on probability, it's better to promptly entrust a lawyer to evaluate the case and fixate on favorable circumstances as soon as possible. This case was handled by Beijing Henglue Law Firm.Shang JiangpengAttorney (Practice Certificate No.: 11101202310580738, subject to the certificate issued by the judicial administrative organ) acting as the agent.

IV. Practical suggestions and legal basis

Action list: First, confirm the suspected charges, the amount involved in the case, and the role of the party concerned in the case as soon as possible; Second, entrust a lawyer to meet, verify, and submit legal opinions against arrest during the review of the arrest; Third, actively make restitution and pay fines, strive for the victim's understanding, and sign a plea agreement; Fourth, collect materials such as fixed residence, stable work, family constraints, and health to exclude social dangerousness; Fifth, if there are doubts about the facts of the accusation, focus on demonstrating the insufficiency of evidence. For criminal defense and bail applications, you can refer to the relevant provisions.Criminal defense and criminal case filingAndSpecial servicesLegal basis: Article 67, Article 81, and Article 91 of the Criminal Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China (amended in 2018), as well as relevant provisions on the review of arrests. The specific application shall be subject to the currently effective laws, regulations, and judicial rulings.

5. Henglu Law Firm's Reminder

Firstly, there is no unified probability for not approving arrest, and any statement about the proportion of approvals is not credible. Secondly, insufficient evidence, minor circumstances, and no social danger are common reasons for not approving arrest. Thirdly, the policy of "fewer arrests, more cautious prosecutions, and more cautious detentions" provides some room for manoeuvre, but it needs to be supported by specific circumstances and materials. Fourthly, even if the arrest is approved, it is still possible to seek a change in the coercive measures through a review of the necessity of detention. For those involved in criminal defence, they can seek help through legal channels.Criminal defense and criminal case filingThe service provides a comprehensive solution that integrates corporate operations and compliance requirements.Business and contract disputes in enterprisesFor matters related to the execution of the return and compensation of the involved assets, you may refer to the following document for reference.Creditor's rights and debts, and enforcementFor matters related to finance and cross-border transactions, you can seek advice from usFinance and cross-border affairs.

VI. Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What is the probability of not being arrested after being criminally detained?

There is no fixed standard. Whether to approve the arrest depends on whether the evidence meets the legal standards, the possible sentence, and whether there is a social danger. It will also be influenced by the nature of the case and criminal policy. Any claim that can give a fixed ratio is not reliable and should be evaluated by a lawyer based on the specific case.

Q2: In which situations is it more likely that the prosecutor will not approve the arrest warrant?

Common circumstances include: insufficient evidence, the existence of reasonable doubt; the circumstances are significantly minor and the harm is not great; the defendant may be sentenced to a lighter punishment; the defendant admits guilt and accepts the punishment and obtains the victim's forgiveness; the defendant is an accomplice or plays a minor role; the defendant suffers from a serious illness and cannot take care of himself; the defendant is pregnant or is breastfeeding her own baby, etc. All of these require judgment based on specific evidence.

Q3: Can the decision to approve the arrest warrant be changed after it has been issued?

Where a decision to approve an arrest has already been made, it cannot be directly "withdrawn", but it is possible to apply for a review of the necessity of detention in accordance with Article 95 of the Criminal Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China (amended in 2018). Where it is not necessary to continue detention, the People's Procuratorate shall propose to release the detainee or change the coercive measures.

Q4: Does not approving the arrest mean that the case is over?

This does not mean that the case is over. If the arrest is not approved, the suspect will usually be placed under residential surveillance or bail supervision. The case may still continue to be investigated, transferred for review and prosecution, and even prosecuted and tried. The parties involved should abide by the bail conditions, cooperate with the case handling, and continue to hire lawyers to follow up on the subsequent procedures.

Q5: What can family members do to try to prevent the prosecutor from approving the arrest warrant?

There are three things that can be done: First, as soon as possible, entrust a lawyer to meet with the suspect during the review and approval stage of the arrest and submit an opinion against approving the arrest; Second, take the initiative to make restitution and pay back the money, strive for the victim's understanding and cooperate with the admission of guilt and punishment; Third, prepare materials proving that the suspect has a fixed residence, stable job, no criminal record, and good health, which can be used to eliminate social dangerousness.

The above content is based on the compilation of judicial practices in the Beijing area. The facts of individual cases and the jurisdiction of the court may affect the conclusions. Welcome to consult Henglue Law Firm for specific cases.

If you are facing similar problems, it is recommended that you consult a professional lawyer as soon as possible with the evidence materials, so as to avoid missing the statutory time limit. →Criminal defense legal services·Attorney Shang Jiangpeng·Beijing Henglu Law Firm

Disclaimer: This article is compiled based on the current effective laws and regulations and public adjudication rules, and is for general reference only. It does not constitute a formal legal opinion on specific cases. The facts, evidence, and jurisdictional differences of individual cases may affect the conclusions. In case of disputes, please consult a practicing lawyer in time.